美联储褐皮书：经济活动基本持平，企业裁员报告增多

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates that U.S. economic activity has remained stable since September, but there is an increasing number of layoffs, raising concerns about a weakening labor market [2][3]. Summary by Sections Economic Activity - Economic activity is generally stable across most Federal Reserve districts, with some areas reporting slight expansions and others slight declines [5]. - The report highlights that the overall employment situation remains stable, although there is a noted increase in layoffs due to weak demand and rising economic uncertainty [2][3]. Labor Market - The number of employers reducing staff through layoffs has increased, with reasons cited including weak demand, economic uncertainty, and increased investment in artificial intelligence [2]. - Several districts are facing labor supply shortages in sectors such as hospitality, agriculture, construction, and manufacturing due to recent immigration policy adjustments [2]. Price Trends - The term "tariff" appeared 64 times in the report, indicating that tariffs are contributing to rising input costs, although the extent to which these costs are passed on to end prices varies [2]. - Price increases are reported at a moderate pace, with some areas experiencing heightened cost pressures [5]. Economic Outlook - The Beige Book suggests that high uncertainty will continue to suppress economic activity, with some districts specifically noting that a prolonged government shutdown could pose downside risks to economic growth [3]. - Overall, the economic outlook remains cautious, with many respondents expressing concerns about potential downturns [5].