凌晨！美联储，重磅发布！

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates again during the meeting on October 28-29, with a probability of 97.3% for a 25 basis point cut, as indicated by the latest economic conditions report and comments from Fed officials [2][8]. Economic Conditions - The latest Beige Book report shows a slight decline in overall consumer spending, while employment levels remain stable across regions. However, many employers are reducing staff through layoffs or natural attrition due to weak demand and ongoing economic uncertainty [4][6]. - The report, based on information collected until October 6, highlights the importance of the Beige Book in analyzing future monetary policy trends, especially amid delays in key economic data due to government shutdowns [5]. Inflation and Tariffs - The report indicates that tariffs imposed by the Trump administration are contributing to rising overall inflation, with businesses struggling to balance absorbing costs versus passing them on to consumers. The term "tariff" appeared 64 times in the latest report, down from 100 times in August [6]. - Some companies are maintaining prices to remain competitive, while others have fully passed on higher import costs to consumers [6]. Labor Market Insights - The Beige Book notes that while the overall employment level is stable, many regions report increased layoffs or natural attrition, driven by weak demand, persistent economic uncertainty, and increased investment in artificial intelligence [6]. - Companies still hiring report that recruitment has become relatively easier, although some sectors continue to face labor shortages [6]. Consumer Spending Trends - Recent consumer spending has shown a slight decline, with high-income groups still spending robustly on luxury goods and travel, while middle- and low-income groups are increasingly relying on discounts and promotions [6]. Federal Reserve Officials' Comments - Fed officials, including Stephen Miran, emphasize the need for a rate cut due to increased economic uncertainty from trade tensions, suggesting that the current policy has become more restrictive than previously thought [8][9]. - Miran supports the idea of two more rate cuts by the end of the year, indicating that a reduction of up to 1.25 percentage points is realistic [9].