黄金狂飙启示录：一场定价逻辑的世纪迁徙

Core Viewpoint - The surge in gold prices is deviating from traditional economic models, driven by factors such as the U.S. government shutdown and rising expectations of interest rate cuts, leading to a historic breakthrough of gold prices above $4200 per ounce [2][6]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Gold prices have increased from $1614 per ounce to over $4200 per ounce in just three years, with a 27% rise last year and over 50% this year [2]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that gold prices could reach $4900 per ounce by December 2026, reflecting a significant upward revision of $600 from previous estimates [2][10]. - As of October 13, domestic gold-themed ETFs have surpassed 200 billion yuan in total scale, with some ETFs doubling their returns this year [2][12]. Group 2: Historical Context of Gold - Gold's origins trace back to cosmic events over 4 billion years ago, making it a rare and irreplaceable asset [3]. - Throughout history, gold has represented a universal value consensus, serving as a form of trust and wealth across civilizations [4]. - The establishment of the gold standard in the early 19th century led to unprecedented currency stability and international trade prosperity, but it also limited governments' ability to respond to economic crises [5]. Group 3: Shift in Gold's Role - The traditional relationship between gold prices and U.S. real interest rates has broken down, particularly after the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with gold prices continuing to rise despite high real interest rates [6][8]. - The current demand for gold is increasingly seen as a substitute for U.S. dollars, as central banks globally are restructuring their reserve assets, with gold reserves surpassing U.S. debt holdings for the first time in 30 years [8][9]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The current gold market is characterized by a significant shift in buyer structure, with individual investors and central banks becoming the main buyers, particularly as Western ETF investors return [10][11]. - The ongoing trends of de-dollarization and geopolitical uncertainties are expected to sustain gold's appeal as a hedge against sovereign credit risks [9][11]. - The potential for a new economic cycle driven by the AI revolution could influence gold's long-term value, as it reflects a broader strategy of balancing risk assets with safe-haven investments [12][13].