阿尔法工场研究院·2025-10-16 00:07Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential existence of an artificial intelligence (AI) bubble, with OpenAI being a significant player in this phenomenon, both as a driver and a beneficiary of the bubble [2][3]. Group 1: Historical Context of Bubbles - The author reflects on past bubbles, including the internet bubble of the late 1990s, the real estate bubble, and the cryptocurrency bubble during the pandemic, highlighting the common characteristics of these bubbles [4][5]. - Each bubble was marked by widespread public enthusiasm and investment, with people discussing their experiences and investments in these sectors, creating a palpable sense of excitement [5][6]. Group 2: Current AI Landscape - Currently, AI has become a central topic of conversation, but the sense of a bubble is not as pervasive as in previous instances, as it seems confined to specific industries or circles [6][9]. - Unlike past bubbles where a significant portion of the population was directly involved in investments, the AI sector appears to be dominated by a few large tech companies, limiting broader public engagement [9][10]. - Major tech firms like Nvidia and Microsoft have driven recent market gains, with a small number of stocks holding substantial weight in the S&P index, indicating that most Americans are indirectly exposed to AI assets through retirement accounts [10]. Group 3: Perception of the AI Bubble - While there are signs of an AI bubble, characterized by massive spending and unrealistic expectations, this bubble feeling seems to be more prevalent in corporate boardrooms than in the daily lives of ordinary people [10][11]. - The article raises the question of whether the general public would feel the impact if the AI bubble were to burst, suggesting a disconnect between corporate investment and everyday experiences [11].