IMF预测2026年日本GDP被印度超越，退居第5

Core Viewpoint - India's GDP is projected to surpass Japan's by 2026, reaching approximately $4.5056 trillion, and is expected to rise to the third position globally by 2029 [1][6]. Group 1: GDP Projections - Japan's nominal GDP is estimated to be $4.4636 trillion in 2026, dropping from the fourth to the fifth position globally due to the depreciation of the yen and the shrinking GDP in dollar terms [1][3]. - In 2024, Japan's GDP is projected at $4.0193 trillion, ranking fourth after the US, China, and Germany, having fallen from third place in 2023 [3]. - By 2025, Japan's GDP is expected to reach $4.2798 trillion, with the reversal of positions between India and Japan occurring later than previously anticipated [3][6]. Group 2: Economic Growth Factors - India's significant population growth and the surge in the middle class are driving economic expansion [4][6]. - India's domestic automobile sales surpassed Japan's in 2022, making it the third largest market globally after China and the US [6]. - Projected growth rates indicate that India will achieve high growth of 6.6% in 2025 and 6.2% in 2026, while Japan's real wage growth is expected to support personal consumption at 1.1% in 2025, slowing to 0.6% in 2026 due to weak external demand [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - By 2030, Japan's GDP is anticipated to rise to $5.1198 trillion but will be surpassed by the UK at $5.1997 trillion, resulting in Japan falling to sixth place globally [6].