“存款搬家”背后原因浮出水面

Core Viewpoint - The recent data from the People's Bank of China indicates a significant increase in RMB deposits, with a notable shift in the dynamics of non-bank financial institution deposits and household savings, suggesting a reallocation of assets by residents rather than a simple "deposit migration" to the stock market [1][2]. Group 1: Deposit Trends - In the first three quarters, RMB deposits increased by 22.71 trillion yuan, with non-bank financial institution deposits rising by 4.81 trillion yuan [1]. - By the end of September, household deposits grew by 12.73 trillion yuan, a substantial increase compared to 9.77 trillion yuan at the end of August [1]. - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" is characterized as residents reallocating their savings based on changes in asset return rates, rather than a direct transfer to the stock market [1][2]. Group 2: Non-Bank Deposits - Non-bank deposits saw a significant increase in July and August, with July's increase at 2.14 trillion yuan and August's at 1.2 trillion yuan, indicating a trend of high growth [2]. - The assumption that this increase in non-bank deposits directly correlates with a migration of household savings into the stock market is deemed overly simplistic, as evidenced by the subsequent drop in non-bank deposits in September [2][3]. Group 3: Bank Strategies - Banks are increasingly relying on non-bank deposits and interbank certificates of deposit to expand their liabilities, especially when household deposit growth slows [3]. - The issuance of government bonds and special bonds in July and August created a demand for banks to increase their liabilities, leading to a rise in non-bank deposit figures [3]. Group 4: Wealth Management Products - The total scale of bank wealth management products decreased by 128.47 billion yuan by the end of September, falling to 30.82 trillion yuan [4]. - Despite a slight increase in the sales proportion of equity-linked products, there has not been a significant surge in overall sales of these products [5][6]. - The popularity of index-linked products remains high, while direct investments in specific stock market sectors are less favored [6].