降息50基点？美联储，重大变数！

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's future interest rate cut path has become uncertain, with increasing internal disagreements among its members regarding the pace and magnitude of potential cuts [2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Position - New Fed Governor Stephen Milan supports a 50 basis point cut in the upcoming meeting, citing increased downside risks to the U.S. economy due to escalating trade tensions [3]. - Milan acknowledges that a 25 basis point cut is more likely in October, indicating a divergence among Fed members regarding the speed of rate cuts rather than the ultimate target [3][5]. - Fed Governor Christopher Waller advocates for a cautious approach, suggesting a gradual reduction of 25 basis points to assess the economic impact [6][7]. Group 2: Market Expectations - Market traders are increasingly betting on at least one "extraordinary" 50 basis point cut by the Fed in the upcoming meetings, with a 97.8% probability of a 25 basis point cut in October [2][8]. - Recent trading activity indicates a surge in options linked to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), reflecting traders' hedging against the possibility of a 50 basis point cut [8][9]. - The sentiment in the bond market has shifted, with the two-year Treasury yield dropping to around 3.5%, indicating a bullish outlook among traders [9].