2025年三季度经济学家问卷调查：股市汇市“双韧性”成共识，财税改革最受期待

Core Viewpoint - The majority of respondents positively evaluated the stock market performance in Q3 and are optimistic about the market conditions in Q4 [2][3]. Economic Performance - Over half (54.1%) of respondents expect China's GDP growth in Q3 to be between 4.8% and 5% [4]. - As of the end of September, social financing scale and broad money (M2) maintained a rapid growth rate, indicating a sustained moderately loose monetary policy [4]. - More than half (55.7%) of respondents believe that the monetary policy in Q3 maintained a moderate level of implementation [4]. Stock Market Evaluation - All respondents rated the stock market performance in Q3 with scores of 3 or above (out of 5), indicating a generally positive sentiment [4]. - 85.2% of respondents rated the stock market performance with scores of 4 or 5, an increase of 6.8 percentage points from the previous quarter [4]. Anti-"Involution" Policies - Over 70% (75.4%) of respondents rated the effectiveness of various anti-"involution" policies implemented in Q3 with scores of 3 or above [5]. - 44.2% of respondents rated these policies with a score of 3, reflecting a neutral to positive sentiment towards the efforts to address "involution" in competition [5]. Q4 Market Outlook - The economic foundation remains solid, with significant potential, leading to a positive outlook for the stock and foreign exchange markets in Q4 [7]. - 95.1% of respondents rated the expected stock market conditions in Q4 with scores of 3 or above, indicating a more optimistic outlook compared to previous assessments [7]. - 88.5% of respondents expect the RMB to USD exchange rate to remain between 7.0 and 7.2 for most of Q4 [8]. Investment Confidence - 47.5% of respondents anticipate that private investment confidence will stabilize in Q4, an increase of 4.2 percentage points from the previous survey [7]. - 23% of respondents expect a slight increase in private investment confidence, up by 4.6 percentage points from the last survey [7]. Policy Recommendations - 82% of respondents suggest that part of the 2026 "two new" quotas should be allocated in advance to boost year-end consumption [11]. - Over 40% (41%) of respondents recommend that the People's Bank of China should consider timely cuts in reserve requirements and interest rates in Q4 [12]. - Respondents expressed a strong interest in reforms during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, particularly in fiscal and tax systems, income distribution, and social security [9][13].