经济观察报·2025-10-17 03:22Core Viewpoint - The reliance of emerging market countries on the US dollar in international transactions is decreasing due to geopolitical changes, rising tariff barriers, and fluctuations in the US interest rate cycle, leading to an increase in the use of the Renminbi (RMB) in cross-border transactions [1][2]. Group 1: RMB Internationalization - The 138th China Import and Export Fair (Canton Fair) has seen an increase in the use of RMB as a trade settlement currency among exporters [2]. - Reports from institutions like China Construction Bank and CICC indicate significant growth in the use of RMB for cross-border trade settlement and financing from 2024 to 2025 [2]. - The RMB's acceptance as a trade settlement currency is particularly notable in "Global South" economies, including Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Central Asia [3]. Group 2: Company Experiences - Suzhou Grun德 Electric Co., Ltd. has seen an increase in RMB trade settlements initiated by European clients, with RMB transactions now accounting for a growing portion of their business [6]. - Similar trends are observed at CaiXun Industrial (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd., where the proportion of RMB settlements has risen from 0% to approximately 40% for Russian clients [7]. - Jiangsu Jinpeng Group has reported a significant increase in African clients opting for RMB settlements, with the number of such clients doubling from last year [7]. Group 3: Cross-Border RMB Settlement Data - In June, the Bank of China reported that the cross-border RMB settlement volume exceeded 43 trillion yuan, a 31% year-on-year increase, while the cross-border RMB clearing volume reached 131.4 trillion yuan, up 49% [8]. - The CICC report highlighted the weakening credibility of the US dollar due to its misuse and the imposition of tariffs, suggesting a shift towards a more fragmented and diversified global monetary system [8]. Group 4: Challenges and Outlook - Despite the positive trends, companies face challenges in using RMB for international transactions, including low liquidity and high financial costs associated with offshore RMB [11]. - A survey indicated that 60% of companies cited low liquidity and high costs as major barriers to using RMB, while 50% reported that counterparties were unwilling to use RMB [11]. - Optimism remains, with 57% of domestic companies and 69% of foreign companies expecting to increase their use of RMB in cross-border trade settlements by 2025 [12].