鑫椤锂电一周观察 | 钴系和6F材料价格继续大涨

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustments in the new energy vehicle (NEV) purchase subsidy and tax exemption requirements by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) are expected to enhance the penetration rate of pure electric vehicles and increase the average battery capacity per vehicle, leading to a higher demand for power batteries in the coming year [2][4]. Policy Adjustments - The new technical requirements for pure electric vehicles mandate longer range capabilities for the same battery capacity, resulting in a 13% reduction in energy consumption for vehicles weighing 1000 kg, from 11.6 kWh/100 km to 10.1 kWh/100 km [2][3]. - For plug-in hybrid vehicles, the pure electric range requirement has been raised from 43 km to a minimum of 100 km, indicating a strategic move to reduce the number of vehicles eligible for tax exemptions and alleviate fiscal pressure [3]. Market Implications - The increase in the pure electric range requirement is likely to lead to a surge in sales of vehicles designed under the previous 43 km threshold before the end of the year, followed by a potential decline in sales afterward [4]. - The demand for battery packs will rise as the capacity for vehicles with a 100 km range will need to increase from approximately 10 kWh to around 20 kWh, indicating a significant shift in battery requirements [4]. Lithium Market Dynamics - The domestic lithium carbonate market price is fluctuating between 72,000 to 74,000 yuan per ton, supported by strong downstream demand despite increased supply from salt lakes and mica [7]. - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is reported at 72,500 to 74,500 yuan per ton, while industrial-grade is at 71,000 to 72,000 yuan per ton [8]. Material Prices - The price of ternary materials has continued to rise, with the 5-series single crystal type priced at 138,000 to 143,000 yuan per ton and the 8-series 811 type at 151,000 to 156,000 yuan per ton [9]. - Phosphate lithium market demand remains robust, with prices for power-type phosphate lithium ranging from 32,600 to 34,200 yuan per ton [10]. Battery Production and Sales - The domestic lithium battery market remains stable, with a 10% month-on-month increase in production in September, and major battery manufacturers are expected to maintain high operating rates in the fourth quarter [17]. - The retail sales of new energy vehicles from October 1 to 12 reached 367,000 units, with a penetration rate of 53.5%, indicating a year-to-date total of 9.236 million units sold, up 23% year-on-year [18].