3年市值缩水近八成，如今重回千亿，“钴爷”回来了

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent stock price surge of Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd., questioning whether it can return to its peak market value of 170 billion yuan after experiencing significant fluctuations in its market capitalization over the years [6][18]. Company Overview - Huayou Cobalt, established in 2002 and listed in 2015, specializes in the research and manufacturing of new energy lithium battery materials and cobalt materials. The company has developed a global operational structure encompassing overseas resources, international manufacturing, and global markets [7]. - The company operates five major business segments: new energy, new materials, nickel industry in Indonesia, resource industry in Africa, and recycling industry [7]. Financial Performance - From 2021 to 2024, Huayou Cobalt's revenue showed steady growth, with figures of 35.31 billion yuan, 43.56 billion yuan, 45.28 billion yuan, and 46.83 billion yuan respectively. However, net profit declined significantly from 3.89 billion yuan in 2021 to 420 million yuan in 2024 due to falling cobalt prices [7][8]. - The stock price peaked at 114.72 yuan per share in July 2021, with a market cap nearing 170 billion yuan, but subsequently fell over 40% by the end of 2022 and continued to decline into 2024, reaching a low of 3.64 billion yuan in July 2024 [8][9]. Recent Stock Performance - In 2025, Huayou Cobalt's stock rebounded strongly, rising from approximately 29 yuan per share at the beginning of the year to over 67 yuan per share by October 2025, marking a 152% increase [10][12]. - The company re-entered the 100 billion yuan market cap club on September 26, 2025, and reached a new high of 73 yuan per share on October 14, 2025 [10][12]. Market Dynamics - The rebound in Huayou Cobalt's stock price is attributed to the overall strength of the lithium battery sector, with global electric vehicle sales increasing by 35% year-on-year and domestic lithium battery installations rising by 42% in the first half of 2025 [13]. - Policy support, such as continued subsidies for electric vehicles in China and the implementation of carbon tariffs in Europe, has further bolstered industry expectations [13]. Performance Improvement Factors - The company's performance improvement is linked to optimized product structure and enhanced cost control, with a 45% year-on-year increase in the production of ternary precursors and a significant rise in the proportion of high-nickel products [14]. - A "black swan" event in early 2025, where the Democratic Republic of the Congo announced a temporary halt on cobalt exports, led to a rebound in cobalt prices, further supporting Huayou Cobalt's stock price [15]. Future Growth Potential - Huayou Cobalt's lithium battery materials segment is expected to continue its rapid growth, with revenues from ternary precursors and positive materials accounting for 29.28% of total revenue in the first half of 2025 [20]. - The company is also expanding its international market presence, having sold a 25% stake in its battery materials company BCM to Toyota Tsusho for 121 million USD, which is expected to enhance BCM's competitiveness in high-end markets [21]. Challenges Ahead - Despite the revenue growth, Huayou Cobalt faces the challenge of "increasing revenue without increasing profit," highlighting its dependence on upstream resource prices, which poses a risk to its future development [22].