“恐慌指数”飙升：美股平静期结束了？

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is experiencing significant volatility due to multiple uncertainties, including trade war threats, regional bank loan defaults, and skepticism surrounding the AI bubble, marking the most turbulent period since April [1][4]. Market Volatility - The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) reached a peak of 28.99, the highest level since late April, indicating heightened market fear and expectations of continued volatility [2]. - Investors are increasingly buying options that profit when the VIX rises to 47.5 and 50, reflecting growing concerns about market stability [4]. Economic Concerns - Recent declines in regional bank stocks have raised fears about the credit market, suggesting that the U.S. economy may be weaker than it appears, compounded by renewed trade war threats that could lead to a recession [4][5]. - The market's reaction to former President Trump's threat of new tariffs resulted in the largest single-day drop since April, ending a record period of calm in the S&P 500 [5]. Sector Performance - Despite strong earnings reports from major banks like JPMorgan and Bank of America, the regional banking sector has faced sharp declines due to significant bad debt losses reported by Zions Bancorp [5]. - Defensive sectors such as utilities, healthcare, and consumer staples have recently outperformed, contrasting with the poor performance of banks and energy companies [5]. High-Risk Investments - High-risk assets, including Bitcoin, have seen substantial declines, with Bitcoin dropping approximately 8.7%, marking its worst weekly performance since February [6]. - Popular stocks like Opendoor Technologies have also experienced significant losses, down 5.4% [6]. Market Sentiment - Some industry insiders believe the recent market downturn does not indicate a long-term sell-off, viewing the adjustment as a healthy correction after a rapid market rise [7]. - Concerns persist regarding the market's vulnerability to shocks, as elevated valuations of large-cap stocks may mask underlying issues, reminiscent of the late 1990s tech bubble [8][9].