美联储，降息大消息

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, represented by St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem, is leaning towards supporting another interest rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting, while cautioning against excessive easing due to ongoing inflation risks [1][3]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Outlook - Musalem indicated that he could support a policy rate cut if labor market risks increase and inflation risks remain manageable, with inflation expectations anchored [3]. - The market anticipates a 25 basis point cut following the September reduction, with the current federal funds rate target range at 4% to 4.25% [3]. Inflation Concerns - Musalem emphasized the need for caution, stating that the space for easing is limited until the task of controlling inflation is completed [3]. - He highlighted persistent inflation risks stemming from tariffs, reduced labor supply, and sticky service prices, which require ongoing vigilance [3][4]. Labor Market Insights - Musalem noted that the labor market might face greater pressure, with the necessary monthly job additions to maintain stable unemployment potentially decreasing to a range of 30,000 to 80,000 [4]. - He expressed that negative growth in non-farm employment could occur, but this may not necessarily lead to a significant rise in the unemployment rate [5]. Future Projections - Musalem projected that the impact of tariffs on inflation would continue to transmit through the economy for the next two to three quarters, with a return to the 2% inflation target expected by the second half of 2026 [4].