美股新高之路再添不确定性

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of the U.S. stock market, influenced by regional bank earnings reports, easing trade tensions, and the potential for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, while highlighting ongoing economic uncertainties due to government shutdowns and mixed economic data [3][4]. Economic Data Overview - The NFIB small business optimism index fell by 2.0 points to 98.8 in September, indicating a decline in sentiment [7]. - The New York manufacturing index rose by 19.4 points to 10.7, returning to expansion territory, while the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index dropped to a six-month low, reflecting regional economic weakness [7]. - Initial jobless claims decreased to approximately 217,000, down from 234,000 the previous week, suggesting a potential easing in layoffs [7]. - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicated stagnation in economic expansion, with an increase in reported layoffs raising concerns about the labor market [8]. Federal Reserve Outlook - Market expectations for two 25 basis point rate cuts this year and three in 2026 have increased, with the Fed's dot plot indicating plans for two cuts in 2025 and one in 2026 [8][9]. - Fed Chairman Powell signaled a dovish stance, emphasizing the soft labor market and the potential impact of the government shutdown on economic outlook [9]. Market Performance - Despite trade and credit quality concerns, U.S. stock indices rose over 1.5% last week, supported by better-than-expected earnings from major companies like JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Johnson & Johnson [11]. - All sectors of the S&P 500 index saw gains, with communication services leading at 3.6% and real estate following at 3.4% [11]. - Investor sentiment remains optimistic, with a recent Bank of America survey indicating bullish sentiment at an eight-month high [12]. Future Market Predictions - The overall market outlook remains moderately bullish, with expectations for a recovery in stock prices, although potential risks from escalating trade tensions or further credit events could shift sentiment [12].