势银研究 | 2028年中国绿色甲醇可能存在过剩风险

Core Insights - The article provides a brief introduction to the "China Green Methanol Industry Report" published by TrendBank, highlighting the growth and potential of the green methanol sector in China [2]. Group 1: Current Market Status - As of August 2025, there are a total of 220 green methanol projects that have been completed, are under construction, or are planned in China [5]. - Since 2025, 38 green methanol projects have been initiated, with a total production capacity of approximately 480,000 tons per year for the ongoing projects [5]. - The number of green methanol fuel-powered vessels in China reached 78 by June 2025, including various types of ships, which is expected to create an additional demand of nearly 400,000 tons of methanol fuel by 2028 [5]. Group 2: Production Cost and Capacity Forecast - The estimated production cost of green methanol through biomass gasification and hydrogen addition is approximately 4,900 RMB per ton, with operational costs being the key variable influencing this cost [3]. - The operational costs are primarily driven by biomass raw material costs, which exceed 50%, followed by electricity costs at 33% [3]. - A conservative estimate suggests that by 2028, China's green methanol production capacity will exceed 5 million tons per year, leading to a potential oversupply of approximately 4.6 million tons when considering the additional demand from fuel-powered vessels [5].