第一财经·2025-10-20 06:32Core Viewpoint - The coal sector continues to show strong upward momentum, driven by seasonal demand and supply constraints due to adverse weather conditions and regulatory measures [3][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of the afternoon close on October 20, several coal stocks, including Antai Group (600408.SH), Yunnan Coal Energy (600792.SH), and Dayou Energy (600403.SH), reached their daily limit up, with Dayou Energy achieving a five-day consecutive limit up [3]. - The gas sector also experienced gains, with stocks like Dazhong Public (600635.SH) and Guoxin Energy (600617.SH) hitting their daily limit up, while others like Changchun Gas (600333.SH) and Baichuan Energy (600681.SH) rose over 6% [3]. Group 2: Weather Impact - A strong cold air mass is affecting China from October 16 to 21, leading to the lowest temperatures of the second half of the year, with northern regions expected to experience temperatures below 10°C for five consecutive days starting October 18 [4]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - October is a critical period for coal stockpiling ahead of winter, with domestic coal production expected to decrease year-on-year due to rainfall and regulatory checks on overproduction [5]. - As of October 15, the price of Q6000 thermal coal in the Yulin region was reported at 595-620 RMB/ton, reflecting a 20 RMB/ton increase from the end of September, marking a 3.4% rise [5]. - The supply side is tightening as many coal mines are cautious in production due to safety inspections and maintenance, leading to expectations of reduced coal output in October [5][6]. Group 4: Demand Side Analysis - The demand for coal is strong as companies prepare for winter, with coal procurement needs being released. As of October 9, major power plants in Shandong had an average coal inventory of 35.5 days, down 2.87 days from the end of September [6]. - However, rising coal prices may lead downstream coal-consuming companies to reduce production or lower operational loads to manage costs, potentially limiting further coal procurement [6].