全球光伏或迎来理性发展期

Core Viewpoint - The global photovoltaic (PV) industry is transitioning from a phase of rapid growth to a stage of rational development, with a projected global PV installation capacity of approximately 3.68 terawatts from 2025 to 2030, which is a downward adjustment of 5% from previous forecasts [1][3]. Market Dynamics - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its forecast for global renewable energy generation capacity, indicating a reduction of about 248 gigawatts, with PV installations accounting for nearly 70% of this decrease [5]. - In the U.S., the forecast for PV capacity is expected to decline by over 140 gigawatts due to changes in tax incentives for residential solar systems, which have dampened installation enthusiasm [5]. - Issues such as insufficient grid capacity and complex approval processes continue to hinder PV project deployment in various regions [5]. Regional Insights - In contrast to the U.S., the European PV market is showing more resilience, with countries like Germany, Spain, Italy, and Poland expected to drive continued growth through renewable energy project auctions [6]. - The European PV industry is anticipated to maintain high demand levels due to declining costs, advancements in storage technology, and rising residential electricity prices [6]. Demand Resilience - Despite the IEA's downward revision, the fundamental demand for PV remains strong, with projections indicating that by 2030, renewable energy will account for 43% of global electricity generation, with solar PV surpassing hydropower as the leading renewable source [8]. - The global electricity demand is expected to grow at an average rate of 3.9% annually from 2025 to 2027, with renewable energy meeting 95% of this growth, half of which will come from solar PV [8]. Emerging Markets - Emerging markets in the Middle East, North Africa, and Southeast Asia are becoming new growth hubs for global PV, driven by the need to address fossil fuel price volatility and electricity shortages [9]. - Countries like Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are accelerating national PV projects, contributing to rapid increases in renewable energy capacity [9]. Industry Evolution - The PV industry is shifting from a focus on installation volume to enhancing system efficiency, grid integration, and storage capabilities [10]. - The IEA emphasizes the need for simultaneous upgrades in grid infrastructure, storage expansion, and flexible dispatch mechanisms to fully realize PV potential [12]. Policy and Future Outlook - The IEA highlights the importance of stable and transparent policy frameworks to boost confidence in the PV sector, as fluctuations in U.S. policies and inconsistent execution within the EU impact development [13]. - The future of the PV industry will involve deeper integration with storage, grid, and hydrogen technologies, aiming to create a more secure, stable, and efficient energy system [13].