对话CPM Group中国区总经理曲硕：金价也有周期——长涨短调

Core Viewpoint - The primary factor influencing gold prices is the demand for safe-haven assets, followed by inflation and monetary policy, while manufacturing demand has a negative impact [1][7]. Group 1: Historical Trends and Price Movements - Historically, international gold prices exhibit a "long rise, short adjustment" trend, with significant price increases followed by notable corrections. The typical upward cycle lasts 3 to 5 years, while corrections last 1 to 2 years [4]. - From 1978 to 2019, gold prices experienced multiple cycles of "rise-adjustment-shock," with notable peaks and corrections, such as the rise from $192 to over $700 in the late 1970s and the surge to $1800 in 2011 before a drop to around $1000 by 2016 [4][5]. - In 2024, gold prices are expected to break through $2000 per ounce, with a peak of $2800 per ounce anticipated due to increased geopolitical risks [5]. Group 2: Current Influencing Factors - The current surge in gold prices is driven by three main factors: expectations surrounding U.S. presidential policies, a shift of funds from U.S. Treasury sales to gold, and a significant increase in investment demand, particularly from former cryptocurrency investors [7]. - Inflation's impact on gold prices is currently weak, with U.S. inflation rates dropping from 6% to around 3.1%-3.2%, reducing the demand for gold as an inflation hedge [8]. - The manufacturing sector's demand for gold is declining due to high prices, leading industries like jewelry and electronics to minimize gold usage to control costs [8][9]. Group 3: Future Demand and Exploration Trends - Gold manufacturing demand is expected to decline significantly in 2024, dropping by 8.5% year-on-year to 85 million ounces, primarily due to high gold prices affecting consumption and production willingness [9]. - If gold prices remain high, demand is projected to further decrease to 84.5 million ounces in 2025, reflecting a continued slowdown [10]. - Despite rising gold prices, exploration spending has decreased due to higher financing costs and operational challenges in resource-rich regions, leading to a cautious approach among mining companies [10]. Group 4: Investment Strategies and Recommendations - Short-term investment in gold is not recommended due to the high risk of price corrections, with potential declines of $500 to $600 per ounce if market panic occurs [12]. - For physical gold investments, gold bars are preferred for their higher safety, while caution is advised for gold ETFs and futures due to past market volatility [12]. - A recommended allocation of 10% to 25% of personal assets in gold is suggested to balance safety and avoid over-reliance on gold for returns [13].