AI竞赛白热化！全球资本开支飙升，中国快速追赶

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant increase in capital expenditures by major cloud service providers (CSPs) driven by the AI wave, indicating a multi-year capital expansion cycle ahead. It highlights the competitive landscape among tech giants and the rapid catch-up of Chinese CSPs in capital spending [3][4][5]. Group 1: Capital Expenditure Trends - Morgan Stanley predicts that by 2027, the capital expenditure to sales ratio for AI-focused CSPs will reach 26%, nearing the peak of 32% during the internet bubble [3]. - Market consensus estimates that capital expenditures for AI-enabled enterprises will reach $450 billion, $520 billion, and $540 billion in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with over $335 billion in disclosed but uninitiated lease commitments [3][4]. - Citi has raised its forecast for AI capital expenditures, projecting a 24% growth for 2026, significantly above the current market consensus of 20% [7]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Major tech companies are increasing capital expenditures, particularly in GPU procurement, data centers, and power, indicating a "arms race" in the tech sector [4]. - The high costs of training large models create a "Matthew effect," where only leading CSPs and AI companies can afford to compete, making it difficult for smaller players to catch up [4]. Group 3: China's Capital Expenditure Growth - Jefferies reports that the gap in capital expenditures between China's four major CSPs and their U.S. counterparts is narrowing, with Chinese CSPs expected to exceed U.S. firms in capital expenditure as a percentage of cloud service revenue starting in Q4 2024 [5][14]. - In the past 12 months, China's four major CSPs have spent approximately $45 billion, compared to $291 billion by U.S. counterparts, indicating rapid growth [13][14]. - Alibaba is leading the charge in AI and cloud service capital expenditures, projecting that its future spending will exceed the total of the past decade [13]. Group 4: Leasing Trends - The trend of leasing data center assets is becoming mainstream, with Microsoft and Oracle being the largest users. Microsoft's leasing grew by 76% in FY2025, while Oracle's leasing was approximately $3 billion [10][11]. - The increase in leasing commitments suggests a sustained shift towards this model, with Oracle's leasing commitments growing by 230% and META's by over 300% from FY2024 to Q1 FY2026 [11]. Group 5: Importance of Cloud Services - Cloud services are crucial for training and inference phases of deep learning models, which require substantial computational resources and storage [15]. - The emergence of AI technologies like DeepSeek is driving demand for cloud services, as companies seek to enhance productivity through AI [15].