金价连创新高！公募如何看后市走向？

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in international gold prices is driven by geopolitical risks, global credit system instability, and liquidity changes, leading to increased investment in gold ETFs and reinforcing gold's role as a core asset in investment portfolios [2][5]. Group 1: Gold Price Performance - On October 20, spot gold prices rose by 2.0% to $4,333.42 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures increased by over 3.1%, reaching a daily high of $4,351 [3]. - Year-to-date returns for several representative gold ETFs have exceeded 60%, with some gold stock ETFs surpassing 90% [4]. Group 2: Factors Driving Investment - The strong rise in gold prices is attributed to a combination of geopolitical risk, a weakening global credit system, and changing liquidity expectations [5]. - Since September, global political instability, including events like the U.S. government shutdown and European fiscal concerns, has further catalyzed the rise in gold prices [5]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Despite potential short-term fluctuations, the long-term value of gold as a hedge against currency credit risk and geopolitical tensions remains solid [7]. - Analysts predict that gold prices could reach between $4,600 and $5,000 per ounce next year, with the key factor being the strength of the U.S. dollar [7][8]. Group 4: Gold Stocks Performance - Gold stocks are expected to see significant revenue and profit growth due to high gold prices, although their performance has lagged behind spot gold prices recently [8].