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日韩股市再创历史新高,日股仍有上升潜力
21世纪经济报道·2025-10-21 03:32

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent historical highs in Japanese and South Korean stock markets, driven by political changes in Japan and ongoing economic reforms that support inflation and corporate governance improvements [1][3][4]. Political Developments - The resignation of the Shinto Abe Cabinet and the anticipated election of Sanna Takashi as Japan's first female Prime Minister is expected to positively impact the Japanese stock market while posing risks to the yen [3][4]. - Despite the political changes, the fundamental policies supporting Japan's economic growth are expected to remain intact, reducing the likelihood of a return to deflation [4]. Economic Outlook - Japan is transitioning from a deflationary environment to a moderate inflation scenario, with core inflation projected to exceed 3% by early 2025 and decline to around 2% by the end of next year [4][5]. - The monetary policy of the Bank of Japan is gradually normalizing, which is expected to maintain a favorable financial environment and support stock market performance [5][6]. Corporate Governance and Investment Opportunities - Corporate governance reforms are reshaping capital allocation and shareholder return attitudes among Japanese companies, with a significant increase in share buybacks expected in the upcoming fiscal years [8][9]. - The banking sector is benefiting from rising net interest margins and improved capital efficiency, enhancing expectations for shareholder returns [10]. - The construction industry is also showing promising investment prospects due to selective bidding strategies and improved profit margins [10][11]. Digital Transformation - Digital transformation remains a key structural growth theme, with Japanese companies accelerating automation to address labor shortages caused by an aging population [11]. - Companies that can capitalize on domestic system integration and cloud migration demands are emerging as attractive investment opportunities [11].