全球矿业研究 | 基本金属估值显现吸引力，哪类金属性价比最高？

Core Insights - The global energy market is experiencing volatility due to rapid industry development, geopolitical tensions, and fluctuating supply-demand dynamics [1] Group 1: Metal Valuation and Market Trends - Basic metal valuations show attractiveness, with nickel currently offering the best value as its price is below marginal costs and its inflation-adjusted 5-year and 8-year averages, despite a relatively weak supply-demand outlook [3] - Aluminum, palladium, and both thermal and metallurgical coal prices are close to marginal costs, indicating solid price support and a more balanced market outlook [3] - In contrast, copper prices appear expensive, significantly above marginal costs and long-term adjusted averages [3] - Precious metals, led by gold, are significantly overvalued, with rising risk aversion pushing gold prices to new highs and driving silver prices up as well [3] - Platinum benefits from improved fundamentals, while palladium's industrial characteristics limit its price increase [3] Group 2: Company Comparisons and Valuations - Zijin Gold International's implied enterprise value/reserve ratio is $782 million per million ounces, which is a 26% discount to the average of large gold mining companies ($1,057 million) and a 31% discount to medium-sized companies ($1,128 million) [4][5] - The company plans to raise $320 million, which represents 15% of its total equity, and has a net debt of $430 million for 2024, leading to an estimated enterprise value of approximately $2.18 billion [4] Group 3: Acquisition Challenges - Glencore faces three major obstacles if it intends to restart a potential acquisition of Teck Resources: it must offer a bid higher than Anglo American's current proposal, reassess its coal strategy to alleviate shareholder concerns, and consider relocating its headquarters to Vancouver to align with Canadian policymakers [6] Group 4: Production Outlook - Fresnillo's silver production is projected to peak at 54 million ounces in 2024 but may decline below 50 million ounces by 2027 due to the nearing end of mine life for certain deposits [9] - Positive exploration results in the Juanicipio area may improve lead and zinc grades, but declining silver grades could offset byproduct revenues, leading to an overall production decline [9] Group 5: Steel Market Dynamics - Nucor and CMC are expected to continue raising rebar prices despite stable scrap costs, driven by supply-demand imbalances in the U.S. East Coast market [11] - The increase in prices may be limited by moderate downstream demand and a lack of price increases in the West during the summer [11] - The absence of new import orders due to a 50% tariff has further constrained supply, supporting rebar prices through the construction peak season [11]