黄金突然跳水，桥水基金创始人：持有15%最合适

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent significant decline in precious metal prices, particularly gold and silver, and highlights Ray Dalio's perspective on gold as a strategic asset allocation rather than a tactical bet [1][3][6]. Price Movements - On October 21, gold prices fell below $4250 per ounce, marking a 2.36% decline, while COMEX gold futures dropped by 1.92% [1]. - Silver prices fell below $50 per ounce for the first time since October 10, with an intraday drop exceeding 6%, ultimately down 4.5% [3]. Ray Dalio's Insights on Gold - Ray Dalio emphasizes that gold should be part of a strategic asset allocation, recommending a 15% allocation for most investors [6][10]. - He argues that gold has historically shown a negative correlation with other assets, particularly during periods of poor returns in stocks and bonds, making it an effective diversification tool [10][11]. - Dalio notes that while gold's long-term expected return is low, it serves as a hedge against economic downturns and inflation [11][14]. Gold as a Unique Asset - Dalio asserts that gold is the most mature form of currency and a stable core investment, contrasting it with fiat currencies, which are essentially debt [12][13]. - He highlights that gold's purchasing power remains intact, unlike cash, which can be devalued through excessive printing [14][21]. Comparison with Other Assets - Dalio explains that while other metals like silver and platinum have industrial uses, they do not possess the same historical and cultural significance as gold, making them less reliable for wealth preservation [18]. - He also critiques inflation-protected bonds, stating they are still debt instruments and may not provide the same level of risk diversification as gold during financial crises [18][19]. Gold vs. U.S. Treasuries - Dalio posits that gold is beginning to replace U.S. Treasuries as a risk-free asset in many investment portfolios, particularly among central banks and large institutions [20]. - He emphasizes that gold has a lower risk profile compared to government-issued debt, which is subject to default and devaluation risks [21].