大佬开炮：智能体都在装样子，强化学习很糟糕，AGI 十年也出不来

Core Insights - The article discusses the current state and future of AI, particularly focusing on the limitations of reinforcement learning and the timeline for achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) [5][6][10]. Group 1: AGI and AI Development - AGI is expected to take about ten years to develop, contrary to the belief that this year would be the year of agents [12][13]. - Current AI agents, such as Claude and Codex, are impressive but still lack essential capabilities, including multi-modal abilities and continuous learning [13][14]. - The industry has been overly optimistic about the pace of AI development, leading to inflated expectations [12][15]. Group 2: Limitations of Reinforcement Learning - Reinforcement learning is criticized as being inadequate for replicating human learning processes, as it often relies on trial and error without a deep understanding of the problem [50][51]. - The approach of reinforcement learning can lead to noise in the learning process, as it weights every action based on the final outcome rather than the quality of the steps taken [51][52]. - Human learning involves a more complex reflection on successes and failures, which current AI models do not replicate [52][53]. Group 3: Future of AI and Learning Mechanisms - The future of AI may involve more sophisticated attention mechanisms and learning algorithms that better mimic human cognitive processes [33][32]. - There is a need for AI models to develop mechanisms for long-term memory and knowledge retention, which are currently lacking [31][32]. - The integration of AI into programming and development processes is seen as a continuous evolution rather than a sudden leap to superintelligence [45][47].