AI大家说 | 哈佛&MIT：AI能预测，但它还解释不了“why”

Core Insights - The article discusses a significant experiment conducted by Harvard and MIT to explore whether large language models (LLMs) can learn a "world model" or if they merely predict the next word based on probabilities [3][4][5] - The experiment utilized orbital mechanics as a testing ground, aiming to determine if AI could derive Newton's laws from its predictions of planetary motion [4][5] - The findings revealed that while AI models could accurately predict planetary trajectories, they did not encode the underlying physical laws, indicating a disconnect between prediction and explanation [6][10] Group 1: Experiment Design and Findings - The research team trained a small Transformer model on 10 million simulated solar system coordinates, totaling 20 billion tokens, to assess its ability to utilize Newton's laws for predicting planetary movements [8] - The results showed that the AI model could generate precise trajectory predictions but relied on specific situational heuristics rather than understanding the fundamental laws of physics [10][11] - The study also highlighted that the AI's predictions could not be generalized to untrained scenarios, demonstrating a lack of a stable world model [10][11] Group 2: Implications for AI Development - The research raises questions about the fundamental limitations of AI models, particularly regarding their ability to construct a coherent world model necessary for scientific discovery [11][12] - The article suggests that while LLMs are not entirely useless, they are currently insufficient for achieving scientific breakthroughs [13] - Future AI development may require a combination of larger models and new methodologies to enhance their understanding and predictive capabilities [13][14] Group 3: Philosophical Considerations - The article reflects on a classic scientific debate: whether the essence of science lies in precise predictions or in understanding the underlying reasons for phenomena [14] - It emphasizes the importance of developing AI that can not only predict but also comprehend the logic of the world, which will determine its ultimate impact on scientific history [14]