一代“神药”，也卖不动了

Core Viewpoint - The company Pianzaihuang has ended its decade-long growth story, reporting significant declines in revenue and net profit in its Q3 2025 financial results, indicating a severe challenge to its previously successful growth model based on scarcity and price increases [1][2][5] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, Pianzaihuang reported revenue of 7.442 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.93%, and a net profit of 2.129 billion yuan, down 20.74% [1][6] - Q3 alone saw revenue drop to 2.064 billion yuan, a decline of 26.28%, and net profit fell to 687 million yuan, down 28.82% [1][6] - This marks the worst performance in nearly a decade, breaking a trend of continuous growth from 2015 to 2024 [5] Market Position and Valuation - Once valued at over 290 billion yuan, the company's market capitalization has now evaporated by nearly 180 billion yuan, leaving it at 111.8 billion yuan [2] - The company was once celebrated as the "Moutai of medicine," but the current market sentiment has shifted, with consumers tightening their spending [4][5] Business Segments Performance - The pharmaceutical manufacturing segment generated 4.016 billion yuan, accounting for 54.09% of total revenue, but saw a year-on-year decline of 12.93% with a gross margin decrease of 7.51 percentage points to 59.38% [6][7] - The pharmaceutical distribution segment reported revenue of 2.887 billion yuan, down 8.45%, while the cosmetics segment fell to 400 million yuan, a decrease of 23.82% [7] Key Products and Sales Trends - The core product, the liver disease medication series, generated 3.880 billion yuan, down 9.41%, with a gross margin reduction of 9.68 percentage points to 61.11% [9] - The anticipated Angong Niuhuang Wan product faced a significant decline, with revenue plummeting 65.20% to 93.44 million yuan [9] - The company's inventory has surged to over 6.16 billion yuan, up from 4.97 billion yuan at the end of the previous year, highlighting sales difficulties [11] Cost and Pricing Strategy - The rising costs of key raw materials, such as natural musk and cow bile, have significantly impacted profit margins, with cow bile prices soaring from approximately 350,000 yuan per kilogram in 2019 to around 1.7 million yuan in 2025 [19][20] - The company has historically relied on price increases to offset rising costs, having raised prices over 20 times since its listing in 2003, but this strategy has begun to falter [20][23] - Despite maintaining a retail price of 760 yuan per piece, actual market prices have dropped below 500 yuan, indicating a disconnect between perceived value and market demand [25] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Following the release of the Q3 report, the stock price fell by 5.78% on the first trading day, closing down 4.71% at 187.09 yuan per share [12] - The company is exploring new market channels, including traditional medicine, medical aesthetics, and high-end elderly care, but the effectiveness of these efforts remains uncertain as the previous growth model has stalled [27]