现货黄金跌回4002美元，贵金属是否进入“打折季”？

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold and silver prices is attributed to a combination of profit-taking by investors and easing macroeconomic tensions, despite a generally positive long-term outlook for precious metals driven by monetary easing expectations [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On October 22, gold and silver prices experienced a significant drop, with Shanghai gold futures falling over 5% to a low of 933 CNY per gram, and London spot gold hitting a low of 4002 USD per ounce [3]. - On October 21, gold prices reached a peak of 4086 USD per ounce before declining by 6.18%, while silver prices fell by 8.72%, dropping below 50 USD per ounce [3]. Group 2: Market Analysis - Analysts suggest that despite the short-term volatility, the underlying fundamentals for precious metals remain strong, with expectations of continued monetary easing supporting a bullish medium-term outlook [4]. - HSBC forecasts that gold's upward momentum could persist until 2026, driven by strong central bank purchases, ongoing fiscal concerns in the U.S., and further expectations of monetary easing, with a target price of 5000 USD [4]. Group 3: Investment Sentiment - The recent volatility in gold trading is indicated by a high implied volatility (IV) level, which has surpassed 20, suggesting that the market is currently experiencing a crowded trade [4]. - While central bank purchases and growing investment demand are expected to support higher precious metal prices in the long term, short-term adjustments and event-driven shocks may pose risks for investors [5].