日本餐饮的“平成食代”，正是中国“西贝们”的镜与鉴

Core Insights - The article draws parallels between the challenges faced by Chinese restaurant chains and the historical experiences of Japan's dining industry during the "Heisei Era," suggesting that the lessons learned from Japan's past can inform the future of China's restaurant sector [5][6]. Group 1: Economic Context - Japan's "Heisei Era" began in 1989, marked by a GDP growth rate of 5.4%, which was never reached again in the following thirty years [7]. - The economic bubble burst in Japan led to a significant decline in wealth across various sectors, yet the restaurant industry managed to survive, with food and beverage consumption stabilizing between 23%-25% despite the economic downturn [8][10]. Group 2: Shifts in Consumer Behavior - The average monthly food expenditure in Japan decreased from 82,000 yen in 1992 to 74,000 yen in 2000, while other consumer sectors experienced sharper declines [10]. - The rise of "middle food" (convenience store meals) tripled during this period, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards quicker, more affordable meal options [12][13]. Group 3: Industry Transformation - The Japanese restaurant industry faced a transformation rather than a survival crisis, with a 20% decrease in average meal prices over two decades [10][12]. - The number of restaurant establishments in Japan fell from 1.55 million to around 1.4 million, despite only a 1%-3% drop in demand, highlighting a significant supply-side contraction [15][16]. Group 4: Industry Consolidation and Capitalization - The late 1990s saw a wave of horizontal mergers in Japan's restaurant sector, driven by a "community of interest" mentality, leading to increased chain restaurant prevalence [19][20]. - The restaurant industry experienced a capital wave, with over 100 companies going public, making Japan a leader in restaurant capital markets [20]. Group 5: The "Impossible Triangle" - The article discusses the "impossible triangle" in the restaurant industry, where high pricing, chain operations, and quality cannot coexist [25][29]. - Successful restaurant chains in Japan often focus on standardization and pre-prepared meals, which allow for scalability but limit pricing power [25][34]. Group 6: Case Studies - The return of the chain Watami to China illustrates the challenges of maintaining high pricing in a competitive market, contrasting with the success of companies like Izakaya, which focused on affordability [28][31]. - The majority of Japan's top ten restaurant companies are "affordable representatives," emphasizing the trend towards value over high-end dining [31][32]. Group 7: Lessons for China - The article concludes that the Japanese experience suggests a need for Chinese restaurants to choose between scale and premium pricing, as attempting to achieve both often leads to failure [34][38]. - The differences in food supply and culinary practices between Japan and China indicate that the latter's restaurant industry faces unique challenges in standardization and scalability [37][38].