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[安泰科]多晶硅周评-市场供需双弱 价格平稳运行(2025年10月22日)

Core Viewpoint - The polysilicon market is experiencing a period of structural adjustment, with supply shrinking significantly year-on-year, yet inventory is still slightly accumulating, indicating weak terminal demand [2]. Price Summary - The transaction price range for n-type recycled polysilicon is between 49,000 to 55,000 CNY/ton, with an average price of 53,200 CNY/ton, remaining stable week-on-week [1][3]. - The transaction price range for n-type granular silicon is between 50,000 to 51,000 CNY/ton, with an average price of 50,500 CNY/ton, also stable week-on-week [1][3]. - The average price for n-type dense material is 49,700 CNY/ton, with no fluctuation [3]. Market Dynamics - The number of main signing enterprises for polysilicon has increased to 5-6, but overall market transactions remain relatively light, with signing volumes similar to previous periods [1]. - Demand expectations for photovoltaic installations in Q4 are weak, leading to limited increases in battery component orders, while silicon wafer enterprises maintain stable operating rates [1]. - Three companies are resuming production this month, with a slight increase in polysilicon output expected in October, which is projected to be the peak production month for the year [1]. Production Forecast - Domestic polysilicon production in Q4 is expected to be around 382,000 tons, a slight year-on-year increase of 3.0% [1]. - By 2025, the total domestic polysilicon production is projected to be approximately 1.34 million tons, a significant year-on-year decrease of 27.3%, indicating a slight oversupply compared to demand [1]. Industry Participation - The companies involved in price statistics include Sichuan Yongxiang Co., Ltd., GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited, Xinte Energy Co., Ltd., and others [4].