中亚“支付宝”KSPI：被定价的风险与被隐藏的价值

Core Insights - Kaspi.kz is a prominent fintech company in Kazakhstan, integrating payments, e-commerce, and consumer finance into a super app ecosystem, covering approximately 70% of the country's population and demonstrating strong user engagement and market influence [3][4][5] - The company's success is attributed to its unique "flywheel" effect, where the payment platform drives high-frequency interactions, the e-commerce platform enhances user engagement through deep integration with payments and logistics, and consumer finance utilizes real-time data for precise credit management, leading to diversified revenue streams and reduced credit risk [3][10][14] - Despite strong performance, Kaspi.kz's valuation is significantly misaligned with its fundamentals, currently trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of only 7, which is well below its growth potential, prompting investors to monitor its strategic international expansion, particularly in Turkey [3][24][30] Group 1: Business Model and Market Position - Kaspi.kz operates a vertically integrated, consumer-centric digital ecosystem, evolving from a traditional bank into a super app that integrates daily needs into a lightweight mobile application, breaking the boundaries between online and offline services [6][9] - The consumer super app serves a wide range of services, including QR payments, P2P transfers, bill payments, online shopping, personal loans, travel bookings, and government services, with an average monthly user base of approximately 14.7 million and a DAU/MAU ratio of 65% [9][10] - The merchant super app provides digital business tools to around 737,000 active merchants, including QR payment acceptance, e-commerce promotion, logistics, advertising, and government tax services [9][10] Group 2: Growth Drivers and Financial Performance - Kaspi.kz's growth is driven by three interrelated platforms: payments, e-commerce, and consumer finance, creating a robust "flywheel" effect that enhances user engagement and profitability [10][14][21] - The payment platform generates transaction fees (approximately 1.20%), while the e-commerce platform earns commissions (around 9.70%) and value-added services, contributing to a diversified revenue structure that reduces reliance on credit risk [10][12][14] - Financial data indicates healthy and gradual growth, with a projected EPS growth of 31.3%, a return on equity (ROE) of 67%, and a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 80%, showcasing strong capital efficiency [26][33] Group 3: International Expansion and Strategic Opportunities - Following its consolidation in Kazakhstan, Kaspi.kz is pursuing international expansion, notably through a strategic acquisition of a 65% stake in Turkish e-commerce company Hepsiburada for approximately $1.1 billion, aiming to replicate its super app success in Turkey [24][27] - The acquisition price is reasonable, valued at only 0.75 times Hepsiburada's annualized revenue, and includes $200 million in net cash, presenting a low-cost entry into a larger market [24][27] - Kaspi.kz's expansion into Turkey and Azerbaijan is seen as a critical step to increase its total addressable market (TAM), despite facing macroeconomic challenges in the region [27][34]