经济观察报·2025-10-22 11:04Core Viewpoint - The extreme market fluctuations in gold prices are primarily due to the overcrowding of long positions, leading to profit-taking by investors after a significant price increase since September. This indicates that short-term volatility in gold prices will become the norm [2][5]. Price Movements - On October 21, international gold prices experienced a rare plunge, with spot gold dropping by 6.3% to approximately $4080 per ounce, marking the largest single-day decline since April 2013. The closing price on that day was down 5.31%, the largest drop in nearly 12 years [3][4]. - COMEX gold futures also fell by 5.07% on October 21, closing at $4138.5 per ounce. Since the beginning of 2025, gold prices have surged from around $2650 per ounce, reaching a historical high of $4381 per ounce on October 20 [4]. Market Reactions - The decline in gold prices has adversely affected gold-related stocks, with companies like Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold opening down over 7% on October 22, and closing down more than 3% [4]. - Domestic gold jewelry brands reported a drop in the price of pure gold jewelry, with notable decreases in prices from brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Miao Gold [5]. Factors Behind the Decline - The recent sharp decline in gold prices is attributed to a series of short-term risk factors easing, including positive signals in US-China trade relations and a reduction in geopolitical tensions in regions like Ukraine and the Middle East [7]. - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices had risen too quickly, entering an overbought state, which necessitated a technical correction [8]. Future Outlook - The recent price correction is viewed as a normal phenomenon and is not expected to alter the long-term upward trend of gold prices. Despite recent easing in US-China trade tensions, the fundamental issues remain unresolved, suggesting that the upward trajectory for gold is likely to continue [10]. - Historical trends indicate that after a sustained period of price increases, gold may experience a correction of 20% to 40% within the following year [11]. - The World Gold Council suggests that significant liquidity crises are needed to disrupt both gold and stock markets, but currently, there are no signs of a breakdown in the credit and banking systems, indicating that gold is likely to remain resilient [12].