黄金测试4000美元支撑，上涨暂歇还是行情终结？

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to a significant market correction following speculative trading, with a notable drop of nearly $300 per ounce, marking the largest single-day percentage decline since June 2013 [6][10]. Market Analysis - The recent drop in gold prices indicates that the previous rise was heavily influenced by speculative trading, leading to a mechanism-driven adjustment [6]. - The COMEX gold futures experienced a sharp decline, closing at $4109.10 per ounce, a 5.7% drop, following a record high [6]. - The strengthening of the US dollar and upcoming consumer price index (CPI) data are critical factors influencing investor sentiment towards gold [7]. Investment Strategies - One of the popular trading strategies for 2025 is using gold as a hedge against dollar depreciation, driven by concerns over government debt and fiscal deficits [7]. - There is growing skepticism about gold's ability to fulfill this role effectively, as indicated by market analysts [7]. Technical Indicators - Current gold prices are significantly above the 200-week moving average, suggesting an overbought condition that may necessitate a market correction [8]. - Historical patterns indicate that such corrections could signal the beginning of a major reversal in the market trend [8]. Market Sentiment - Despite the recent sell-off, many market participants believe that the current bull market for gold may not be over, viewing the recent downturn as a temporary adjustment [10]. - Analysts suggest that the recent price drop could be a necessary pause in a longer-term upward trend, allowing for the clearing of short-term speculative positions [12]. Fundamental Support - The fundamental backdrop for gold remains strong, with high levels of geopolitical uncertainty and increasing US money supply supporting the case for further price increases [11]. - The World Gold Council emphasizes that gold's value should be viewed in relation to the overall market environment, indicating that there is still room for growth in gold investments [11].