突遭“断供”！美联储，大消息！

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve faces a significant information gap as ADP Research has ceased providing employment data, which covers approximately 20% of the U.S. private sector workforce, amid a government shutdown that has already limited official economic data availability [2][4]. Group 1: Impact of ADP Data Suspension - ADP Research stopped supplying employment data to the Federal Reserve on August 28, which was previously referenced by Fed Governor Waller in a speech [4]. - The suspension of ADP data further complicates the Fed's ability to gauge the labor market in real-time, especially with the government shutdown halting most economic data releases [4][5]. - The Fed's data framework relies heavily on official data, third-party polls, and internal models, making the loss of ADP data particularly impactful [4]. Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve on October 29 have risen significantly, with a 96.7% probability according to CME FedWatch [2][8]. - A survey of 117 economists indicated that 115 expect a 25 basis point cut, while some predict further cuts in December [8]. - The uncertainty surrounding future interest rates is heightened by speculation about the potential end of Fed Chair Powell's term in May 2024, leading to varied predictions for rates by the end of next year [8][9]. Group 3: Broader Economic Context - The ongoing pressure from President Trump for substantial rate cuts has raised concerns about the Fed's independence, with risks of over-lowering rates becoming more pronounced [10]. - Analysts suggest that the Fed may announce a halt to balance sheet reduction during the upcoming policy meeting, with potential for future bond purchases if year-end pressures escalate [8].