金价剧震，投机资金动摇“安全资产”稳定性

Core Viewpoint - The decline in dollar credit and rising geopolitical risks are expected to continue driving funds into the gold market, maintaining an upward trend in gold prices. However, the influx of investment funds through ETFs has made gold prices more volatile [2][5]. Group 1: Price Movements - On October 21, New York gold futures fell by $250.3 (5.7%) to $4,109.1 per ounce, marking the largest single-day drop in history. The downward trend continued into Asian trading on October 22 [3]. - Gold prices had previously shown a rare upward trend, with a significant increase following the announcement of the dismissal of a Federal Reserve official in late August. By October 7, prices surpassed $4,000 per ounce, reaching a historical high of $4,398 per ounce by October 20, an increase of nearly $400 [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The sell-off in gold was exacerbated by speculative funds collapsing rapidly, as noted by a representative from the Japan Market Strategy Institute. The intensifying U.S.-China tensions and credit risks in U.S. regional banks have diminished concerns that previously supported higher gold prices [5]. - The World Gold Council's survey indicated that demand for gold is projected to reach approximately 170 tons in the April to June 2025 period, accounting for about 20% of total demand, a stark contrast to nearly zero demand in the same period a year prior. This highlights the increased volatility in gold prices due to investor fund allocation [5]. - Analysts suggest that the significant increase in gold ETF demand has become a potential source of selling pressure, contributing to the recent price drops in other precious metals like silver and platinum, which fell by 7% and 8% respectively [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite the recent volatility, the perception of gold as a "safe asset" remains unchanged. Most analysts believe that the decline in dollar credit and rising geopolitical risks will continue to drive funds into the gold market, sustaining an upward price trend [5]. - There is a notable shift in the perception of price stability, with experts indicating that gold prices are likely to experience significant fluctuations in the future [6].