储能企业致命困局：有企业停产，3GWh订单成定时炸弹

Core Viewpoint - The energy storage industry is facing a severe crisis due to a significant shortage of battery cells, which has led to extended delivery times, increased costs, and operational challenges for companies in the sector [1][2][3]. Supply and Demand Imbalance - The energy storage market transitioned from a buyer's market to a situation where battery cells are in high demand and short supply, particularly after the implementation of national policies that spurred market growth [2][3]. - By the third quarter of 2025, the average delivery time for energy storage battery cells increased from 30 days to 75 days, with 38.7% of small and medium-sized enterprises forced to reduce production due to shortages [1][2]. Operational Challenges - Companies are experiencing longer procurement cycles and higher prepayment requirements, with some needing to pay in full upfront to secure orders [3][4]. - The cost of battery cells constitutes over 60% of the total cost of energy storage systems, making stable supply critical for operational continuity [3][4]. Industry-Wide Struggles - The practice of "splitting orders" among multiple suppliers has become common, increasing management and logistics costs by over 20% [4][6]. - Many companies are facing financial strain, with some having to cancel significant orders due to supply issues, leading to daily penalties for delayed deliveries [4][5]. Price and Profitability Issues - The industry is experiencing a price inversion, where the cost of battery cells is rising while the selling price of energy storage systems is declining, resulting in negative profit margins for many companies [6][7]. - The average gross margin for energy storage system integrators has dropped below 5%, while leading battery manufacturers maintain higher margins, indicating a severe imbalance in profit distribution [7][8]. Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The secondary market for battery cells has grown rapidly, with an expected 5GWh of battery cells traded through this market by September 2025, up from less than 5% of total demand in 2024 [8][9]. - Companies are exploring alternative technologies, such as sodium-ion batteries, to reduce reliance on lithium batteries, although these alternatives face significant challenges in large-scale applications [8][9]. Strategic Adjustments - Companies are adjusting their strategies, with some opting for vertical integration to secure battery supply, while others are narrowing their focus to more profitable market segments [9][10]. - The overall sentiment in the industry suggests that the battery supply crisis is unlikely to resolve in the next 6-12 months, with potential price increases anticipated [10][11].