【安泰科】工业硅周评—供需双弱，期现同步承压（2025年10月22日）

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon market is experiencing a "futures fluctuation and slight decline in spot prices" trend, with overall supply and demand showing weakness, leading to a challenging market environment [1][2]. Supply Analysis - Increased production in the northwest region and declining prices are offsetting the impact of reduced production and stable prices in the southwest region, resulting in growing inventory pressure [2]. - The northwest region's new production and futures warehouse delivery are putting pressure on market prices, while the north region faces increased transportation costs due to lower temperatures, forcing spot prices down [2]. - In the southwest region, rising production costs due to the approaching dry season have led companies to halt quotes or cautiously raise prices, but ample supply limits price rebounds [2]. Demand Analysis - All three major downstream industries are showing weak performance, lacking momentum for improvement in industrial silicon demand [2]. - The aluminum alloy market remains stable in price but experiences weak demand, hindering incremental purchases [2]. - The organic silicon market is struggling with low prices and companies operating at a loss, resulting in significantly lower operating rates compared to historical levels and reduced willingness to stock [2]. - The polysilicon market's prices remain stable, but some companies are expected to cut production in November, leading to low purchasing intentions, with production cuts being a key short-term factor affecting industrial silicon demand [2]. Market Overview - The industrial silicon market is currently in a "dual weakness" situation regarding supply and demand, with the core market dynamics being the conflict between rising costs in the southwest region and collectively weak downstream demand [2]. - The market's downward space is supported by cost factors, while the upward potential is limited due to the lack of substantial improvement in the supply-demand fundamentals [2].