三季度工业增速超预期，后续走势如何

Core Viewpoint - China's macroeconomic policies have become more proactive this year, leading to a rapid growth in industrial production, with a year-on-year increase of 6.2% in the first three quarters, serving as a stabilizing force for the macro economy [3][4]. Industrial Growth - In September, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 6.5% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.3 percentage points from August, marking a three-month high [4]. - The manufacturing sector saw a growth of 6.8%, outpacing the overall industrial growth by 0.6 percentage points, while mining and utilities grew by 5.8% and 2.0%, respectively [5]. - Among 41 major industrial categories, 37 experienced year-on-year growth, resulting in a growth coverage of 90.2% [5]. Export Performance - The improvement in exports has been a significant factor in the industrial growth exceeding expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 3.3% in the export delivery value for large-scale industries in the first three quarters [5]. - In September, the export delivery value turned from a decline in August to a growth of 3.8%, indicating a notable recovery in industrial exports [5]. Sectoral Analysis - The added value of the equipment manufacturing sector grew by 9.7%, accounting for 35.9% of the total industrial output, highlighting its stabilizing role [8]. - High-tech manufacturing added value increased by 9.6%, contributing 24.7% to the overall industrial growth, with significant growth in new energy vehicles and related products [9]. Industrial Profitability - From January to August, profits of large-scale industrial enterprises increased by 0.9%, reversing a declining trend since May, with manufacturing profits rising by 7.4% [10]. - The capacity utilization rate for large-scale industrial enterprises was 74.6% in the third quarter, reflecting a 0.6 percentage point increase from the second quarter [10]. Policy Support - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has introduced multiple support measures for ten key industries, which collectively account for about 70% of large-scale industrial output, aiming to stabilize the industrial economy [10]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the steady development of new productive forces and the implementation of new policy financial tools are expected to continue supporting industrial production [11].