“十五五”时期财政政策着力何处？赤字率、投资重点、地方政府债务……

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of fiscal policy during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, advocating for proactive measures to support economic growth and address challenges, with a target GDP growth rate of approximately 4.7% to achieve the 2035 doubling goal [4][5]. Fiscal Policy Role - Fiscal policy is expected to play a crucial role in the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, with a focus on maintaining a high budget deficit to stimulate economic growth [4][5]. - The suggested budget deficit rate for 2026 is around 5%, with plans to utilize special bonds and other broad deficit tools to exceed 16 trillion yuan in total deficit [4][5]. Comparison with Other Economies - Compared to major economies like the U.S. and Japan, which have high deficit rates exceeding 6%, China's central government has a lower leverage ratio, indicating room for increased fiscal measures to boost social confidence and effective demand [5][6]. Shift in Fiscal Spending Focus - There is a proposed shift in fiscal spending from primarily investment-focused to a balanced approach that includes both investment and consumption, emphasizing the need for increased support in public services and consumer spending [6][7]. Addressing Local Government Debt - Addressing local government debt risks is highlighted as a key aspect of fiscal efforts, with recommendations for orderly debt replacement and improved asset management to alleviate financial pressures [7][8]. Structural Issues and Policy Coordination - The article stresses the need to view government debt expansion in a balanced manner, recognizing its potential positive effects on economic growth while advocating for structural reforms in the fiscal and tax systems [8][9]. Economic Resilience and Domestic Demand - The "15th Five-Year Plan" period is seen as a critical time for China to enhance its economic resilience and unleash domestic demand, supported by coordinated macroeconomic policies and ongoing urbanization efforts [9].