国际黄金暂稳4100美元关口

Core Viewpoint - After experiencing a significant drop, international gold prices have stabilized above $4,100 per ounce, despite a volatile week where prices reached a historical high of $4,398 before falling sharply [4][8]. Market Trends - As of October 24, 2023, London spot gold was reported at $4,101 per ounce, with a daily decline of 1.06% [4]. - The week saw gold prices fluctuate dramatically, with a drop exceeding 6% on October 21, marking the largest single-day decline in nearly 12 years [4]. - Despite high volatility, interest in gold investment remains strong, particularly among younger investors, with over 55% of online gold product investors being born in the 1990s and 2000s [4][5]. Investment Behavior - Young investors are characterized by a preference for small, frequent investments over long periods, with over 890 million people engaging in gold ETF regular investments, and 40% of these being post-95 investors [6]. - Following the National Day holiday, searches for "gold" on Alipay surged fivefold compared to the previous year, indicating heightened interest in gold investments [6]. - The number of individuals purchasing gold accumulation and gold ETF funds post-holiday was 1.8 times that of the same period before the holiday [6]. Institutional Insights - Despite a significant drop in gold prices, the year-to-date increase remains over 50%, with institutions emphasizing the importance of high volatility as a key consideration [8]. - Analysts suggest that while central bank purchases and increased investment demand will support gold prices in the medium to long term, short-term adjustments and volatility risks should be acknowledged [8][9]. - The upcoming U.S. economic data release is anticipated to influence future gold price movements, with analysts noting that the $4,000 level has become a battleground for buyers and sellers [8][9]. Long-term Outlook - Central bank purchases and a weakening of the U.S. dollar's credibility are expected to support gold prices in the long run [9]. - Institutional investors continue to maintain high positions in gold ETFs, with record inflows of $26 billion in September [10][11]. - UBS forecasts that macroeconomic uncertainties, including geopolitical factors and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, will sustain demand for defensive assets, maintaining a year-end gold price target of $4,200 per ounce [11]. - Goldman Sachs projects that gold prices could reach $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, driven by increased allocations from various long-term capital investors [11].