刚刚！降息50个基点

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Russia has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 16.5%, marking the fourth consecutive rate cut, although this reduction is the smallest in the current cycle [2] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Inflation expectations remain high, which may hinder sustainable inflation reduction [4] - The GDP growth forecast for this year has been revised down from 1%-2% to 0.5%-1% [4] - The inflation rate is projected to be between 4%-5% by 2026, up from a previous estimate of 4% [4] Group 2: Inflation Factors - Recent price increases are primarily driven by one-time factors, with uneven price trends across different categories in the consumer basket [5] - The increase in the recycling/disposal fee for imported cars is expected to reduce supply, while a planned increase in VAT from 20% to 22% by 2026 is anticipated to raise consumer prices by an additional 0.6-0.8 percentage points [5] - Current inflation expectations remain at 12.6% for October [5] Group 3: Monetary Policy Outlook - The Central Bank aims to achieve its inflation target by maintaining monthly adjusted data close to 4% for an extended period [6] - The average key interest rate for 2026 is now expected to be between 13%-15%, up from a previous forecast of 12%-13% [9] Group 4: External Influences - New sanctions imposed by the U.S. on Russia's largest oil producer complicate the economic situation, potentially reducing revenue from oil exports and increasing the risk of a hard landing for the economy [7] - The Central Bank warns that the "inflation slowdown effect" for the 2025 budget will be significantly less than previously expected, indicating that fiscal policy changes may require adjustments in monetary policy [8]