蔡昉：没有好的第一支柱，养老保险就谈不上公平

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the urgent need for a multi-tiered pension security system in China due to the accelerating aging population and highlights the importance of addressing the pension needs of various demographic groups, particularly those outside the traditional employee pension system [2][3]. Group 1: Characteristics of the Pension System - Over 50% of pension recipients rely on urban and rural resident pension insurance, yet discussions often focus on employee pension insurance, excluding a significant portion of the population [2]. - The rise of non-standard employment and flexible job arrangements has led to over 60% of workers, more than 300 million people, opting for urban and rural resident pension insurance, indicating low coverage rates among these groups [3]. - The traditional approach to expanding pension coverage is becoming ineffective due to the diversification of employment forms driven by digital and platform economies, necessitating new strategies for pension insurance [3]. Group 2: Recommendations for Pension Reform - The status of the resident pension insurance system should be a key criterion for evaluating the first pillar of pension security, as discussions excluding this aspect are incomplete [4]. - The three pillars of pension insurance should not be viewed as equal; the first pillar must be robust to support the second and third pillars, which are dependent on it [5]. - The impact of artificial intelligence on labor productivity and GDP growth necessitates a revolutionary approach to pension insurance models, emphasizing intergenerational equity and a new social contract for future generations [5][6]. Group 3: Specific Suggestions for Improvement - A universal, non-contributory, and inclusive social pension scheme should be developed, starting from the current urban and rural resident pension insurance system [6]. - The employee pension insurance should adopt a pay-as-you-go system, moving away from accumulation and excessive surplus models, focusing on future labor productivity [6]. - The second and third pillars of pension insurance could be made more attractive through "nudging" strategies, rather than being strictly voluntary [7].