全线大涨！美联储，重磅发布！

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. banking industry is facing significant changes due to the Federal Reserve's comprehensive reform of the annual "stress tests" for large banks, which aims to enhance transparency and improve capital planning [2][3][8]. Summary by Sections Reform of Stress Tests - The Federal Reserve announced a comprehensive reform of the annual "stress tests" for large banks, focusing on improving the design of models related to credit losses, operational risks, and securities [3][8]. - The new framework will require regulatory agencies to disclose key models and scenario details before the execution of the stress tests each year [2][8]. Market Reaction - Following the announcement of the reform, stock prices of major financial institutions surged, with Goldman Sachs rising over 4% and other banks like JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup increasing by more than 2% [2][10]. - Market expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are believed to have contributed to the rise in bank stocks, with the probability of a rate cut in December jumping from approximately 91% to 98.5% [10]. Stress Test Scenarios - The most severe scenario for the 2026 stress tests includes a global recession, significant declines in risk asset prices, and a rise in the unemployment rate to around 10% [4][5][6]. - The scenario assumes a 54% drop in stock prices over the first three quarters, alongside a widening corporate bond spread of 5.7 percentage points [5][6]. Internal Disagreements - There are notable divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding the proposed reforms, with some officials expressing concerns that the changes may undermine the credibility of the stress tests [10][11]. - Critics argue that the reforms could lead to a more rigid and less effective testing process, potentially providing a false sense of security to banks [10][11]. Historical Context - The "stress tests" were introduced as a regulatory measure following the 2008 financial crisis to assess banks' resilience during hypothetical economic downturns [8].