流感“抬头” 疫苗、抗病毒药物需求升温

Core Viewpoint - The flu season in China is expected to arrive earlier this year, with a significant increase in infection rates anticipated due to the emergence of the H3N2 strain as the dominant virus, replacing last year's H1N1 strain [6][11][12]. Group 1: Flu Season and Virus Strain - The proportion of flu-like cases in emergency departments reached 3.3%, with a flu positivity rate of 5.8%, marking a 2.2% increase from the previous week [6][7]. - Experts predict that the flu season may start earlier this year, with the H3N2 strain expected to dominate, leading to a higher number of infections [6][12]. - The flu season's early onset is influenced by factors such as virus mutation, low immunity in the population against H3N2, and unusual climate conditions [12][13]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Investment Opportunities - The early flu season signals a shift in market dynamics, prompting a surge in flu prevention-related stocks, with some stocks even hitting their daily limit [8]. - The flu vaccine market has seen a decline, with the market size dropping from 101 billion yuan in 2021 to an estimated 88 billion yuan in 2023, and further projected to decrease to 80 billion yuan in 2024 [14][24]. - In contrast, the antiviral drug market is expanding, with the market size nearing 20 billion yuan in 2023, driven by increased demand for antiviral treatments [14][25]. Group 3: Vaccine and Antiviral Drug Market - The penetration rate of flu vaccines in China is approximately 3%, significantly lower than the nearly 50% in Europe and the U.S., indicating a substantial growth opportunity in the vaccine market [22][24]. - The market for antiviral drugs, particularly neuraminidase inhibitors like Oseltamivir, is currently dominated by a few key players, with a notable increase in demand for new RNA polymerase inhibitors [25][26]. - The introduction of new RNA polymerase inhibitors, such as Marbofloxacin, is expected to reshape the market dynamics, enhancing patient willingness to use these medications due to their improved convenience and safety [26][28].