历史首次！白宫，突发警告！

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government shutdown may prevent the release of October inflation data for the first time in history, creating significant uncertainty for the Federal Reserve in its monetary policy decisions [1][2][3]. Group 1: Impact of Government Shutdown - The White House indicated that due to the ongoing government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) cannot conduct essential price surveys, leading to a potential absence of the October inflation report [2][3]. - Analysts emphasize that the lack of inflation data will complicate the Federal Reserve's decision-making process regarding interest rates in December, increasing uncertainty about future inflation trends [3][4]. Group 2: Employment Data vs. Inflation Data - While the release of October employment data may be less challenging due to companies' clear records of hiring and layoffs, the absence of price surveys will make compiling a complete Consumer Price Index (CPI) report extremely difficult [3]. - The White House's announcement signals to the market that the lack of critical economic data will hinder the Federal Reserve's ability to gauge inflation accurately, leading to more complex policy decisions [3]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Predictions - Economists warn that ongoing interruptions in inflation and employment data could undermine market confidence, potentially amplifying financial market volatility and delaying the transmission of monetary policy [4]. - Following the release of September inflation data, which was lower than expected, traders increased bets on the Federal Reserve making two more rate cuts within the year, with expectations of a 120 basis point reduction over the next 12 months [5][6].