证券时报·2025-10-25 14:56Core Viewpoint - Global hedge funds are significantly increasing their investments in artificial intelligence (AI) related hardware, particularly in the semiconductor and related chip sectors, indicating a bullish outlook on the AI market [2][4]. Group 1: Hedge Fund Activity - According to Goldman Sachs, hedge funds' exposure to AI-related hardware reached its highest level in October, with a notable increase in buying semiconductor stocks, focusing on long positions in Asian and U.S. companies [2][4]. - The enthusiasm for technology stocks is shifting, with hedge funds moving away from major tech companies, known as the "Magnificent Seven," towards smaller companies associated with AI [5][6]. Group 2: Semiconductor Market Dynamics - The AI boom is driving a "super cycle" in storage chips, with major suppliers like Samsung and SK Hynix raising prices of DRAM and NAND flash memory by up to 30% in response to surging demand [7]. - Morgan Stanley predicts that tech giants, including Google, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft, will invest $400 billion in AI infrastructure, further accelerating DRAM demand as investments shift from large-scale data training to inference [8]. Group 3: Capital Expenditure Forecasts - Goldman Sachs has raised its capital expenditure forecast for leading Chinese cloud companies, predicting Alibaba's total capital expenditure will reach 460 billion RMB from 2026 to 2028, significantly higher than the previous target of 380 billion RMB [10]. - The report highlights a strategic divergence among major players, with Alibaba leading in external AI cloud revenue and enterprise services, while ByteDance is focusing on consumer-facing AI applications [10][11]. Group 4: Valuation Insights - Goldman Sachs believes there is currently no AI bubble, with expectations that the AI capital expenditure boom in the U.S. will continue until 2026. The projected price-to-earnings ratios for Tencent and Alibaba in 2026 are 21x and 23x, respectively, which are considered reasonable compared to their peers [12][13].