2026年有色金属供需：铜短缺、镍和铅过剩

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is expected to experience a supply shortage of 150,000 tons in 2026, marking the first such occurrence in three years, driven by increased consumption in renewable energy and data centers, alongside disruptions in production due to accidents at major mines [2][6]. Group 1: Copper Market Insights - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) forecasts a supply shortage of 150,000 tons for copper in 2026, following a projected surplus of 178,000 tons in 2025 [6][8]. - The production growth rate for copper is expected to slow to 0.9% in 2026, compared to 3.4% in 2025, primarily due to a landslide incident at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia [6][8]. - The London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month copper futures reached a historical high of $11,000 per ton on October 9, 2023, nearing the record set in May 2024 [4]. Group 2: Other Non-Copper Metals - Nickel is projected to face a surplus of 261,000 tons in 2026, worsening from a surplus of 209,000 tons in 2025, as production continues to increase in Indonesia despite lower-than-expected demand from electric vehicles [8]. - Lead is also expected to remain in surplus in 2026, with domestic consumption projected to decrease year-on-year, reflecting a trend of reduced net exports from China [8]. - The demand for copper is anticipated to grow significantly, particularly for data centers, with projections suggesting that copper usage in this sector could increase sixfold by 2050, reaching approximately 3 million tons annually [9].