财联社·2025-10-26 05:52Core Viewpoint - The upcoming flu season in 2025 is expected to be significant, with a different strain circulating compared to last year, leading to lower immunity among the public. Vaccination remains the most effective preventive measure, and there is a noticeable increase in vaccine demand across various regions [1][4][5]. Vaccine Supply and Demand - There is a surge in flu vaccine demand, particularly among parents for their children, leading to situations where appointments are available but vaccines are not [6][8]. - The government procurement price for trivalent vaccines has dropped to a historical low of 5.5 yuan per dose, while the price of quadrivalent vaccines has remained stable [2][12]. - Sanofi, a major overseas player, has resumed supply to the Chinese market after a 10-month hiatus, but this has not significantly impacted the market dynamics as domestic manufacturers continue to dominate [10][11]. Flu Activity and Trends - The flu season may start earlier than in previous years, with reports indicating an increase in flu cases, particularly in southern provinces [3][4]. - The predominant strain this year is H3N2, which poses a higher risk due to lower public immunity compared to last year's H1N1 strain [4][5]. Pricing Dynamics - The price of trivalent vaccines has decreased significantly, while quadrivalent vaccines have stabilized after a previous price war [12][13]. - The procurement prices for government-subsidized vaccines have varied, but the overall trend indicates a potential for future price adjustments due to market conditions [13][14]. Market Competition - The return of Sanofi to the Chinese market raises questions about competitive dynamics, but domestic manufacturers like Sinopharm, Beijing Kexing, and Hualan Biological remain the primary suppliers [10][11]. - The flu vaccine market is characterized as an incremental market with substantial demand, and companies do not view each other strictly as competitors [11]. Recommendations for Public Health - Health authorities continue to recommend annual flu vaccinations as the best preventive measure, alongside personal hygiene practices [5][6]. - Increased public awareness and education about the importance of flu vaccination are essential for improving vaccination rates [13].