关税不确定性仍存，全球市场何去何从？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of global liquidity and market volatility, particularly focusing on the U.S. stock market and its implications for international investors regarding the Chinese bull market outlook [2][3]. Market Outlook - The S&P 500 index has been fluctuating around 6700 points, with potential for a 10% to 15% correction if trade tensions do not ease in the coming weeks [3][5]. - Morgan Stanley's chief U.S. equity strategist, Michael Wilson, indicates that the market sentiment is currently characterized by a "wait-and-see" approach, with high investor confidence in a "phase balance" despite the risks [5][6]. AI Investment Risks - Recent corrections in AI-related stocks like Nvidia and Oracle have raised concerns about the potential risks associated with "circular investments" in the tech sector [8]. - Morgan Stanley's research suggests that while the U.S. leads in AI infrastructure, the high customer concentration could amplify payment risks and revenue growth uncertainties [8][12]. Earnings Expectations - The overall earnings outlook for the S&P 500 remains optimistic, with projected year-over-year EPS growth of 8% and sales growth of 4% for Q3 [9]. - The "Magnificent 7" tech stocks are expected to see a 24% increase in net profit year-over-year, contrasting with a mere 2% growth for the broader S&P 493 index [9]. Chinese Market Sentiment - Chinese stocks have gained renewed interest from international investors, with a focus on sectors like robotics, biopharmaceuticals, and electric vehicles [11]. - Despite recent trade tensions, confidence in China's tech innovation remains strong, although investors are advised to be cautious and avoid "bottom fishing" due to low market tolerance [11][12]. Investment Strategy - Morgan Stanley recommends focusing on high-quality stocks and avoiding small-cap stocks with rapid valuation expansion and low earnings certainty [12]. - The firm has shifted its recommendation from Hong Kong stocks to A-shares, anticipating that A-shares will outperform due to their relative resilience to external shocks [11][12].