免税政策倒计时，新能源车真正的市场大考来了

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impending end of the tax exemption policy for new energy vehicles (NEVs) in China, which has been a significant driver for the industry since its inception in 2014. The transition from a policy-driven market to a market-driven one is expected to bring challenges and necessitate a shift in focus for automotive companies [2][4][8]. Group 1: Policy Changes and Market Impact - The exemption from vehicle purchase tax for NEVs will end on December 31, 2025, with a temporary reduction in tax for purchases made between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2027 [2][3]. - The NEV industry has grown significantly, with market penetration rising from less than 1% to over 30%, and exceeding 50% in some first-tier cities, driven by strong government policies [4][7]. - The article highlights the shift from a policy-driven growth phase to a market-driven phase, indicating that the industry is at a crossroads where competition will intensify and only the strongest players will survive [8][17]. Group 2: Challenges Facing the NEV Industry - The reliance on subsidies has led to a "subsidy dependency syndrome" among some companies, resulting in market distortions and overcapacity issues [7][17]. - As the market growth slows and competition intensifies, a price war has emerged, leading to a situation where companies are sacrificing profits for market share, which is unsustainable [7][14]. - The article emphasizes that the NEV sector must now compete on the same level as traditional fuel vehicles, focusing on technology investment and cost management to maintain profitability [14][16]. Group 3: The Future of Fuel and Electric Vehicles - Despite the rapid growth of NEVs, the article argues that the end of fuel vehicles is not imminent, as the debate has shifted from replacement to coexistence [10][13]. - The inherent challenges of NEVs, such as charging infrastructure and battery costs, continue to pose significant barriers to widespread adoption [11][12]. - The emergence of plug-in hybrid and range-extended vehicles indicates a market preference for solutions that combine both fuel and electric power, reflecting consumer demand for versatility [13][14]. Group 4: Industry Restructuring - The article predicts that the withdrawal of subsidies will accelerate industry consolidation, with resources concentrating among leading companies [17]. - Companies lacking scale, technological barriers, and cost control will likely be eliminated in the post-subsidy era, emphasizing the need for a focus on quality and brand building [14][17]. - The ongoing technological challenges, such as the development of solid-state batteries and advanced autonomous driving, remain critical for the future competitiveness of NEVs [16][17].