专访加州大学伯克利分校政治经济学教授巴里·艾肯格林：未来“去美元化”或会加速 人民币国际化在做正确的事

Core Viewpoint - The international monetary system is undergoing significant changes, with increasing skepticism about the dollar's safe-haven status and a shift towards a more diversified cross-border payment system [1][8]. Group 1: International Monetary System Changes - Barry Eichengreen emphasizes that the international monetary system will continue to evolve towards a more digital direction [1]. - The dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves has decreased from slightly over 70% at the beginning of the century to just below 60% currently, indicating a gradual trend of "de-dollarization" [7]. - Eichengreen expresses concerns that U.S. government actions may undermine the dollar's status as a safe haven, potentially accelerating the de-dollarization process [1][8]. Group 2: U.S. Economic Policy and Inflation - Eichengreen notes that the Federal Reserve has a dual mandate to maintain low and stable inflation and high employment, with current inflation levels above the 2% target [3]. - He raises doubts about the effectiveness of the Fed's anticipated interest rate cuts, suggesting that inflation may remain above 2% due to ongoing tariff policies [4]. - The recent volatility in the U.S. Treasury market is attributed to government policies that have led to a weaker dollar and increased yields [6]. Group 3: Cryptocurrency and Digital Payments - Eichengreen categorizes cryptocurrencies into unstable types like Bitcoin, which do not significantly impact the international financial system, and stablecoins, which may face regulatory challenges [9]. - He highlights ongoing initiatives to digitize payment systems, such as the collaboration between SWIFT and banks to test tokenized deposits and the development of cross-border payment systems in Southeast Asia [9]. - A robust regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies is deemed essential to prevent misuse and ensure stability in the financial system [10]. Group 4: Renminbi Internationalization - Eichengreen supports the cautious advancement of Renminbi internationalization, focusing initially on cross-border trade settlements and establishing a global clearing system [11]. - He advises that the Chinese authorities should continue to promote the use of Renminbi in international contexts while maintaining patience, as this process is not instantaneous [11].